Sportradar’s AI-powered NBA season simulation projects the Oklahoma City Thunder as the most likely 2026 NBA Finals champions, positioning them to become the league’s first repeat winner since the 2017–18 Golden State Warriors. After running 50,000 AI-powered simulations of the regular season schedule, the model also projected the top regular season teams, most likely NBA Finals matchups, and more.

Sportradar input tens of thousands of data points into its proprietary AI engine to analyze historical data and predict outcomes for the upcoming NBA season. Built on NBA data and team odds for winning the NBA Finals, the simulations estimate team strength and expected scoring, effectively navigating through the regular season and playoffs with a focus on empirical data.

After running its regular season and playoff simulations, Sportradar projects the five most likely NBA Finals matchups, led by the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Thunder at 9.2% probability. Of the five scenarios, the defending champion Thunder and Cavaliers appeared in three matchups while the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic, and New York Knicks were featured in one matchup apiece.

Notably, the two most recent Eastern Conference winners, the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics, did not appear in any of the five most likely NBA Finals matchups in part due to injuries to star players Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum.

Sportradar’s simulation projects the Thunder are the most likely team to win the 2026 NBA Finals, as they were crowned repeat champion in 27.3% of the 50,000 simulations conducted. Behind Oklahoma City, the Nuggets (10.3%) and Cavaliers (9.4%) were the next most likely teams to win the NBA Finals, while the Rockets (8.3%) and Knicks (7.0%) each earned strong odds to capture their first championship in 30 and 52 years, respectively.

Sportradar’s AI-powered simulation broke down the race to the NBA Playoffs in each conference, projecting the likelihood for all 30 NBA teams to qualify to compete for the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy this season.

In doing so, the simulation projects three teams that are most likely to return to the playoffs after missing out last season: the Atlanta Hawks (75.1%) and Philadelphia 76ers (70.0%) in the East, and the Dallas Mavericks (60.3%) — led by 2025 No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg — in the West.

Sportradar’s simulation also projected the Eastern and Western Conference standings, highlighting the most likely teams to earn top four seeds and home-court advantage in the playoffs.

In the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers and Knicks are projected to finish in the top four once again, while the Magic and Hawks are predicted to unseat the Celtics and Pacers among the top teams in the league.

Meanwhile in the Western Conference, the Thunder, Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Rockets, led by newcomer Kevin Durant, were identified to be the top four teams.

Sportradar’s AI-powered simulation also projects the Western Conference to be stronger than the Eastern Conference this season, with the West taking 58.0% of all inter-conference matchups played during the regular season.

Disclaimer: the above information should not be relied upon for betting purposes.